Pinch In Outsourcing Industry

IN ONE respect it has been a record couple of weeks for “outsourcing”. Around the world, governments and taxpayers have agreed to help ailing financial firms offload their toxic loans and resolve their liquidity worries. Banks are not the only ones hoping that this will help keep them afloat. The multi-billion-dollar outsourcing industry that runs computer systems and other things on companies’ behalf is keeping its fingers crossed, too. After all, financial giants have helped drive the industry’s stellar growth in the past few years. Now they threaten to undermine it.

Huge outsourcing deals involving banks are still being done—on October 8th Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), a big Indian firm, announced a $2.5 billion, nine-year deal with America’s Citigroup—but they are getting rarer. TPI, a consultancy which tracks outsourcing deals worth over $25m, says that in the first nine months of 2007 financial-services firms signed 132 such deals, worth a total of $17.9 billion; in the
first nine months of 2008 there were only 101, worth a total of $10.8 billion.

Some outsourcing folk claim that the financial crisis could ultimately help their business, even though it threatens to harm it in the short term. For one thing, they say, banking survivors that already use outside contractors will give them more to do as they cut costs. For another, banks that have hitherto shunned outsourcing will have to embrace it to protect their margins. And those with their own offshore activities will be more likely to turn them over to specialists. As part of this week’s deal, Citi is selling its Indian back-office operation to TCS for $505m. “This deal sets the stage for a lot of future revenue,” says Subramanian Ramadorai, TCS’s chief executive.

Other industry bosses are more cautious about forecasting the impact of the banking debacle. “It’s like driving blind at the moment,” says Girish Paranjpe, co-chief executive of Wipro, another leading Indian outsourcing firm. As they struggle for survival, many banks have put discussions about outsourcing contracts on hold or just cancelled them altogether. Once the dust settles there will be far fewer financial
institutions around, so competition for the remaining contracts will be stiffer.

American outsourcing giants such as Accenture and IBM will suffer from all this too, but India’s behemoths are particularly exposed. Unlike their American rivals they do not have other activities, such as consulting, to fall back on. NASSCOM, a body that represents India’s outsourcing firms, reckons that financial-services work accounts for 30-40% of the industry’s activity. To make matters worse, other areas such as backoffice operations for airlines and retailers are also slowing. Hence predictions that contract prices charged by Indian firms are likely to drop. CLSA, a brokerage firm, predicts they will fall by 3-5% in the next fiscal year, starting in April 2009.

Faced with tougher times, more outsourcing firms sitting on piles of cash will turn to acquisitions as a way to boost revenues. Infosys and HCL Technologies, two other big Indian companies, are already locked in a battle for control of Axon, a British firm that provides outsourced computer services. On September 26th HCL bid £441m ($813m) for Axon, trumping an earlier offer of £407m from Infosys. As they chase new revenues, outsourcing companies will also need to clamp down on costs. These have been soaring, especially in India, where a ferocious war for talent has driven up wages and led to very high staff-turnover rates. But now companies are hiring new staff only once deals are in the bag, and turnover rates are falling, says Mr Paranjpe. That is good news, but it signals trouble ahead.

From, Economist 11th Oct edition

Silent Busts: More Chinese businesses are collapsing—though you would never know it

OFFICIALLY, only a few thousand companies will declare bankruptcy this year in China. Unofficially, local manufacturing groups believe many more than that will go out of business in the southern province of Guangdong alone. And the underlying causes—falling demand for exports, higher material costs, stricter labour laws—are hardly unique to that province. But in contrast to Europe and America, where business failures are meticulously tracked, the only trace left by most of these firms will be rusting locks on their old front gates.

This is because Chinese business owners who wish to shut down their companies have three options: to reach informal agreements with employees, trading partners and the government; to file under the auspices of a court; or to walk away. Each has its drawbacks.

A Shenzhen manufacturer who recently tried to close by informal agreement describes the process as almost impossible. He had to negotiate separately with over a dozen government agencies, including tax, labour and even the fire department; each had demands that changed by the day. Then there were skittish suppliers, one of whom blockaded his firm’s entrance. “Everyone just wanted more money,” he says. “That is why most people just shut down overnight.” The only thing everyone agreed on was the need to avoid the local courts.

Last year a new bankruptcy law came into effect, but it is incomplete and poorly understood. Even firms that might recover by restructuring under court protection are reluctant to use it, says Helena Huang of Kirkland & Ellis, a law firm. In the past, bosses often preferred to run a business down to its last yuan before acknowledging problems, at which point there was little to reorganise. Even under the new law, it is unclear whether lenders who step in after a bankruptcy have priority over old claims, undermining any incentive for a would-be backer to give a firm a second chance.

As a result, any reorganisations that do take place often happen informally. One local municipal government, Ms Huang says, recently bailed out a big local firm because it feared that a collapse would harm local jobs and its own reputation—and this is hardly uncommon. There are quiet bail-outs, she adds, even among publicly listed companies.

More than 30 companies on the national stockmarkets have recently failed, says Alan Tang of Grant Thornton, a consultancy. But in many cases control has been acquired by other firms to engineer a “backdoor listing”, without the lobbying and delays common in China. Evidently some Chinese entrepreneurs continue to believe that a listed firm’s ability to raise public capital is worth having—if not now, then one day.

From, Economist, 11th Oct Edition